Methodology: Using the 2002-2011 NHL Drafts, individually rank the top 62 players in games played from each draft, then sort by PTS/GP, and calculate each draft pick’s PTS/GP and average it over the 10 year span of drafts from 2002-2011.
Why: There’s often a misperception of the value of prospects, and ultimately NHL’ers, at the draft. It is now trendy to bash NHL teams selections if they aren’t the most skilled assets taken off the board (and taking sub 5’9 is now chic and cool), in an exercise that disregards NHL translation and risk. This table demonstrates that some of the ‘least desirable’ NHL skaters can actually produce an average value PTS/GP worthy of a late 2nd round pick (IE Derek Dorsett).
Case Studies: Nazem Kadri is an example of a player whose long-term NHL production has equalled his draft pick selection (#7), based on this PTS/GP chart. Patrice Bergeron is an example of a player overperforming in NHL production (#3) relative to his draft selection (#45). Benoit Pouliot is an example of a player underperforming in NHL production (#19) relative to his draft selection (#4). However, the utility of this chart can be seen in Pouliot’s case: despite many slapping the BUST label hard on him, producing like a 19th overall pick is actually not as bad as many make his fall from top 5 seem.
Enjoy the list, and if you would like to get an idea of other players of interest and where they landed (if they were in the 2002-2011 drafts), please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org or shoot the request over to @draftbuzzhockey on Twitter.
|2||0.86||Jonathan Toews (+.01)|
|3||0.76||Patrice Bergeron (-.01)|
|4||0.72||Matt Duchene (+.01)|