Draft Pick Production Values from 2002-2011 NHL Drafts

Methodology: Using the 2002-2011 NHL Drafts, individually rank the top 62 players in games played from each draft, then sort by PTS/GP, and calculate each draft pick’s PTS/GP and average it over the 10 year span of drafts from 2002-2011.

Why: There’s often a misperception of the value of prospects, and ultimately NHL’ers, at the draft. It is now trendy to bash NHL teams selections if they aren’t the most skilled assets taken off the board (and taking sub 5’9 is now chic and cool), in an exercise that disregards NHL translation and risk. This table demonstrates that some of the ‘least desirable’ NHL skaters can actually produce an average value PTS/GP worthy of a late 2nd round pick (IE Derek Dorsett).

Case Studies: Nazem Kadri is an example of a player whose long-term NHL production has equalled his draft pick selection (#7), based on this PTS/GP chart. Patrice Bergeron is an example of a player overperforming in NHL production (#3) relative to his draft selection (#45). Benoit Pouliot is an example of a player underperforming in NHL production (#19) relative to his draft selection (#4). However, the utility of this chart can be seen in Pouliot’s case: despite many slapping the BUST label hard on him, producing like a 19th overall pick is actually not as bad as many make his fall from top 5 seem.

Enjoy the list, and if you would like to get an idea of other players of interest and where they landed (if they were in the 2002-2011 drafts), please email me at info@draftbuzzhockey.com or shoot the request over to @draftbuzzhockey on Twitter.

PICK PTS/GP PLAYER
1 0.99 Nicklas Backstrom
2 0.86 Jonathan Toews (+.01)
3 0.76 Patrice Bergeron (-.01)
4 0.72 Matt Duchene (+.01)
5 0.68 Alex Radulov
6 0.66 Jeff Skinner
7 0.63 Nazem Kadri
8 0.62 David Backes
9 0.59 Dustin Byfuglien
10 0.58 Wayne Simmonds
11 0.56 Travis Zajac
12 0.55 Keith Yandle
13 0.53 Nick Foligno
14 0.52 Dustin Brown
15 0.50 Artem Anisimov
16 0.49 Alex Killorn
17 0.48 Ryan Suter
18 0.46 Sean Couturier
19 0.44 Benoit Pouliot
20 0.43 Nick Leddy
21 0.42 Jannik Hansen
22 0.41 Nikolay Kulemin
23 0.39 Cody Franson
24 0.38 Brandon Sutter
25 0.37 Matt Niskanen
26 0.36 Justin Abdelkader
27 0.35 Lars Eller
28 0.34 Matt Beleskey
29 0.33 Travis Hamonic
30 0.32 Jamie McBain
31 0.32 Daniel Winnik
32 0.30 Dwight King
33 0.30 Michael Stone
34 0.29 Cal Clutterbuck
35 0.28 Dmitri Kulikov
36 0.27 Nathan Beaulieu
37 0.27 Erik Condra
38 0.25 Adam Larsson
39 0.24 Derek Dorsett
40 0.23 Marc Staal
41 0.23 Tomas Jurco
42 0.22 Trevor Lewis
43 0.22 Alex Petrovic
44 0.21 Luke Schenn
45 0.20 Nate Thompson
46 0.19 Luca Sbisa
47 0.19 Connor Murphy
48 0.18 Roman Polak
49 0.17 Jon Merrill
50 0.17 Kyle Clifford
51 0.16 Patrick Kaleta
52 0.15 Adam McQuaid
53 0.14 Mark Stuart
54 0.13 Clayton Stoner
55 0.12 Ryan Reaves
56 0.11 Theo Peckham
57 0.10 Zac Rinaldo
58 0.07 Ole-Kristian Tollefsen
59 0.05 Kari Lehtonen
60 0.05 Luke Gadzic
61 0.03 Cam Janssen
62 0.01 James Reimer
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