The Prospect Volatility Index, shortened to PVI, was created in 2015 in an attempt to quantify a prospect’s growth potential, and more specifically, probability of personal change and development at the time of their NHL Draft. The index is a composite ranking designed to combat relative age effect as well as balance dynamic physical development amongst prospects.
This index attempts only to give some objective framework for viewing a prospect’s long-term upside – it doesn’t replace a ranking nor guarantee certain development curve. It was constructed by using the 2018 NHL Draft Combine attendees, NHL CS top 62 skaters for NA, and NHL CS top 31 skaters for EUR. An age and size “position” were calculated for each prospect and combined to establish a composite PVI score.
Essentially, the learnings from this exercise come from the extreme ends of the spectrum. It can split out the younger, more physically underdeveloped players from the older, more physically mature ones. This index is meant to be combined with many other metrics to create a wholistic picture on a given prospect. Very generally, it’s a supremely positive indicator if a ‘subjectively’ elite prospect shows up with a top rank in PVI. Conversely, if a prospect is not billed as a top pick and he shows up with a low PVI rank, odds are said prospect has probably seen his development curve spike already and is much closer to being a finished product. It can be very good for projected top 5-10 picks, as it may mean they are more NHL ready than their peers.
Take a look at historical top PVI prospects***:
2015: #2 Troy Terry @1.90; #3 Anthony Cirelli @1.89; #15 Mitchell Marner @1.67; #16 Sebastian Aho @1.66; #27 Brendan Guhle @1.50; #30 Mathew Barzal @1.44
2016: #6 Jordan Kyrou @1.82; #9 Clayton Keller @1.74; #22 Samuel Girard @1.55; #29 Jesper Bratt @1.51
2017: #1 Alex Formenton @1.94; #27 Filip Chytil @1.55
Here’s the 2018 NHL Draft Top Ten in DraftBuzz PVI:
| PVI RK | PLAYER | NHL CS RK | LEAGUE | POS | PVI |
| 1 | Olivier Rodrigue | NA1G | QMJHL | G | 1.98 |
| 2 | Kevin Mandolese | NA2G | QMJHL | G | 1.94 |
| 3 | Jan Jenik | EUR16 | CZE2 | RW | 1.91 |
| 4 | Jackson Perbix | NA96 | USHS | RW | 1.77 |
| 5 | Adam Boqvist | EUR2 | SUPERELIT | D | 1.76 |
| 6 | Lukas Dostal | EUR1G | CZE2 | G | 1.75 |
| 7 | Ruslan Ishakov | EUR31 | MHL | C | 1.73 |
| 8 | Ryan Merkley | NA45 | OHL | D | 1.72 |
| 9 | Luke Henman | NA83 | QMJHL | C | 1.71 |
| T10 | Jesperi Kotkaniemi | EUR6 | LIIGA | C | 1.70 |
| T10 | Filip Hallander | EUR13 | ALLSVENSKAN | C | 1.70 |
Here’s the 2018 NHL Draft Bottom Ten in DraftBuzz PVI:
| PVI RK | PLAYER | NHL CS RK | LEAGUE | POS | PVI |
| 111 | Riley Sutter | NA80 | WHL | RW | 0.44 |
| 112 | Kyle Topping | NA59 | WHL | C | 0.42 |
| 113 | Jachym Kondelik | NA48 | USHL | C | 0.41 |
| 114 | Krystof Hrabik | EUR29 | CZE2 | C | 0.33 |
| 115 | Filip Zadina | NA3 | QMJHL | RW | 0.33 |
| 116 | Jack Gorniak | NA87 | USHS | LW | 0.32 |
| 117 | Philipp Kurashev | NA61 | QMJHL | C | 0.28 |
| 118 | Sean Durzi | NA37 | OHL | D | 0.27 |
| 119 | Milos Roman | NA41 | WHL | C | 0.25 |
| 120 | Ryan McLeod | NA16 | OHL | C | 0.18 |
Download the full DraftBuzz 2018 NHL Draft Prospect Volatility Index
*combine data pulled from here –> @markscheig
**non-combine attendees data as well as did not test attendees pulled from here
***please note, historical ranks and scores from 2015-2017 were against the final DraftBuzz NHL Draft Rankings
