2018 NHL Draft: Prospect Volatility Index

The Prospect Volatility Index, shortened to PVI, was created in 2015 in an attempt to quantify a prospect’s growth potential, and more specifically, probability of personal change and development at the time of their NHL Draft. The index is a composite ranking designed to combat relative age effect as well as balance dynamic physical development amongst prospects.

This index attempts only to give some objective framework for viewing a prospect’s long-term upside – it doesn’t replace a ranking nor guarantee certain development curve. It was constructed by using the 2018 NHL Draft Combine attendees, NHL CS top 62 skaters for NA, and NHL CS top 31 skaters for EUR. An age and size “position” were calculated for each prospect and combined to establish a composite PVI score.

Essentially, the learnings from this exercise come from the extreme ends of the spectrum. It can split out the younger, more physically underdeveloped players from the older, more physically mature ones. This index is meant to be combined with many other metrics to create a wholistic picture on a given prospect. Very generally, it’s a supremely positive indicator if a ‘subjectively’ elite prospect shows up with a top rank in PVI. Conversely, if a prospect is not billed as a top pick and he shows up with a low PVI rank, odds are said prospect has probably seen his development curve spike already and is much closer to being a finished product. It can be very good for projected top 5-10 picks, as it may mean they are more NHL ready than their peers.

Take a look at historical top PVI prospects***:

2015: #2 Troy Terry @1.90; #3 Anthony Cirelli @1.89; #15 Mitchell Marner @1.67; #16 Sebastian Aho @1.66; #27 Brendan Guhle @1.50; #30 Mathew Barzal @1.44

2016: #6 Jordan Kyrou @1.82; #9 Clayton Keller @1.74; #22 Samuel Girard @1.55; #29 Jesper Bratt @1.51

2017: #1 Alex Formenton @1.94; #27 Filip Chytil @1.55

Here’s the 2018 NHL Draft Top Ten in DraftBuzz PVI:

PVI RK PLAYER NHL CS RK LEAGUE POS PVI
1 Olivier Rodrigue NA1G QMJHL G 1.98
2 Kevin Mandolese NA2G QMJHL G 1.94
3 Jan Jenik EUR16 CZE2 RW 1.91
4 Jackson Perbix NA96 USHS RW 1.77
5 Adam Boqvist EUR2 SUPERELIT D 1.76
6 Lukas Dostal EUR1G CZE2 G 1.75
7 Ruslan Ishakov EUR31 MHL C 1.73
8 Ryan Merkley NA45 OHL D 1.72
9 Luke Henman NA83 QMJHL C 1.71
T10 Jesperi Kotkaniemi EUR6 LIIGA C 1.70
T10 Filip Hallander EUR13 ALLSVENSKAN C 1.70

Here’s the 2018 NHL Draft Bottom Ten in DraftBuzz PVI:

PVI RK PLAYER NHL CS RK LEAGUE POS PVI
111 Riley Sutter NA80 WHL RW 0.44
112 Kyle Topping NA59 WHL C 0.42
113 Jachym Kondelik NA48 USHL C 0.41
114 Krystof Hrabik EUR29 CZE2 C 0.33
115 Filip Zadina NA3 QMJHL RW 0.33
116 Jack Gorniak NA87 USHS LW 0.32
117 Philipp Kurashev NA61 QMJHL C 0.28
118 Sean Durzi  NA37 OHL D 0.27
119 Milos Roman NA41 WHL C 0.25
120 Ryan McLeod NA16 OHL C 0.18

Download the full DraftBuzz 2018 NHL Draft Prospect Volatility Index

 

*combine data pulled from here –> @markscheig

**non-combine attendees data as well as did not test attendees pulled from here

***please note, historical ranks and scores from 2015-2017 were against the final DraftBuzz NHL Draft Rankings

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s