2018 NHL Draft Final Ranking

  1. Rasmus Dahlin, D, SHL
  2. Andrei Svechnikov, RW, OHL
  3. Quintin Hughes, D, NCAA
  4. Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, USHL
  5. Filip Zadina, RW, QMJHL
  6. Brady Tkachuk, LW, NCAA
  7. Noah Dobson, D, QMJHL
  8. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, LIIGA
  9. Adam Boqvist, D, SUPERELIT
  10. Joel Farabee, LW, USHL
  11. Barrett Hayton, C, OHL
  12. Vitali Kravtsov, RW, KHL
  13. K’Andre Miller, D, USHL
  14. Kirill Marchenko, RW, MHL
  15. Evan Bouchard, D, OHL
  16. Grigori Denisenko, LW, MHL
  17. Bode Wilde, D, USHL
  18. Liam Foudy, C, OHL
  19. Martin Kaut, C, CZECH
  20. Rasmus Kupari, C, LIIGA
  21. Nils Lundqvist, D, SHL
  22. Ty Smith, D, WHL
  23. Isac Lundestrom, C, SHL
  24. Joe Veleno, C, QMJHL
  25. Dominik Bokk, RW, SHL
  26. Alexander Alexeyev, D, WHL
  27. Ty Dellandrea, C, OHL
  28. Rasmus Sandin, D, OHL
  29. Sampo Ranta, LW, USHL
  30. Serron Noel, RW, OHL
  31. Jonatan Berggren, RW, SUPERELIT
  32. Jacob Bernard-Docker, D, BCHL
  33. Jesse Ylonen, RW, MESTIS
  34. Akil Thomas, C, OHL
  35. Sean Durzi, D, OHL
  36. Niklas Nordgren, RW, Jr. A SM-liiga
  37. Ryan Merkley, D, OHL
  38. Jacob Olofsson, C, ALLSVENSKAN
  39. Jay O’Brien, C, USHS
  40. Jack McBain, C, OJHL
  41. Jared McIsaac, D, QMJHL
  42. Filip Hallander, C, ALLSVENSKAN
  43. Cameron Hillis, C, OHL
  44. Calen Addison, D, WHL
  45. Ryan McLeod, C, OHL
  46. Yegor Sharangovich, C, KHL
  47. Jan Jenik, C, CZE2
  48. Ruslan Ishakov, C, MHL
  49. Nicolas Beaudin, D, QMJHL
  50. Martin Fehervary, D, ALLSVENSKAN
  51. Jett Woo, D, WHL
  52. Jake Wise, C, USHL
  53. Mattias Samuelsson, D, USHL
  54. Adam Ginning, D, SHL
  55. Logan Hutsko, C, NCAA
  56. Blake McLaughlin, LW, USHL
  57. Kevin Bahl, D, OHL
  58. Olof Lindbom, G, SUPERELIT
  59. Jonathon Tychonick, D, BCHL
  60. Jakub Lauko, LW, CZE
  61. Aidan Dudas, C, OHL
  62. Albin Eriksson, LW, SUPERELIT
  63. Olivier Rodrigue, G, QMJHL
  64. Ivan Morozov, C, MHL
  65. Scott Perunovich, D, NCAA
  66. Patrick Giles, RW, USHL
  67. David Gustafsson, C, SHL
  68. B-O Groulx, C, QMJHL
  69. Allan McShane, C, OHL
  70. Nikita Rtischev, LW, MHL
  71. Curtis Hall, C, USHL
  72. Ty Emberson, D, USHL
  73. Luke Henman, C, QMJHL
  74. Jordan Harris, D, USHS
  75. Liam Kirk, LW, England
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2018 NHL Draft Combine: Dynamic Power Leaderboard

Slowly disappearing are the days of ‘meathead’ tests devaluing the NHL Draft Combine. Whether by design or not, seemingly every year the brass is designing new ways of sharpening the testing methods. Maybe they have been working off of a clever long term plan to phase in and out tests in order to keep the ‘older guard’ comfortable in the evolving fitness landscape.

This year, they expanded the lower body dynamic power testing bracket. In addition to the Vertical Jump and Standing Long Jump, the category now also includes two other cuts of jumping: one with a squat and no arm swing pre-ceding the jump and another with hands on hips and lack of arm swing. Furthermore, they also moved the resistance style bench press to become more dynamic by measuring the velocity of the bar from chest pause to full arm extension. Because of this change, I will now include chest press in the dynamic power breakdown and give readers an idea of players with systemic explosiveness.

The Dynamic Power Leaderboard, or obviously their version of it, may well be the ‘river card’ that teams wait to see before going all in on a given prospect (anaerobic power testing can also be combined as they usually go hand in hand). It has been a fantastic pre-draft indicator to tipping off who may crack the first round (sometimes surprisingly). Look at last year alone for those who registered top ten placements in both jumps: #1 Josh Norris, #3 Morgan Frost, #6 Henri Jokiharju, and #7 Cale Makar.

With that in mind, here’s the 2018 Dynamic Power Leaderboard:

Rk Player St Long Jump Vert Jump Sq Jump No Arm Jump Bench Press COUNT SCORE
1 Liam Foudy 10 10 9 10 7 5 46
2 Martin Fehervary 7 8 10 9 6 5 40
3 Jack Gorniak 5 5 6 6 8 5 30
4 Nils Lundkvist 8 9 4 7 4 28
5 Gabriel Fortier 6 7 8 3 21
6 Jakub Lauko 2 4 5 5 4 16
7 K’Andre Miller 6 7 2 13
8 Eric Florchuk 8 4 2 12
9 Ty Emberson 2 1 9 3 12
10 Jacob Ingham 9 1 2 10
T10 Rasmus Kupari 10 1 10
12 Andrei Svechnikov 1 3 4 3 8
13 Kevin Bahl 5 1 5
T14 Oliver Rodrigue 4 1 4
T14 Oliver Wahlstrom 4 1 4
T16 Carter Robertson 3 1 3
T16 Barrett Hayton 3 1 3
T16 Riley Stotts 3 1 3
T16 Noah Dobson 1 2 2 3
T20 Jay O’Brien 2 1 2
T20 Jordan Harris 2 1 2
T22 Isac Lundestrom 1 1 1
T22 Mitchell Hoelscher 1 1 1

Learnings: 

*Liam Foudy (London, OHL) is about on par with a Josh Norris or Trent Frederic – anything is possible but I am not expecting him to make it out of the first round despite not being a consensus top 31 prospect.

*Nils Lundqvist (Luleå HF) = a faster rising, yet more seasoned Henri Jokiharju.

*After drooling over K’Andre Miller‘s (USA, USHL) pure athletic ability all year on ice, it’s interesting to see him place in only two of the four LB power cats. What I see there is a physical freak who has an insane kinetic chain and can channel his explosiveness throughout his entire body IE with using UB and swinging arms. My prediction: valued more than P-O Joseph was last year meaning probable top 20.

*Andrei Svechnikov (Barrie, OHL) showed up in the bottom portion of 3 of the 5 tests and I love it. Tells me he showed just enough physical prowess to let teams know he’s ready without intimating that he was overpowering OHL’ers en route to having his fantastic season.

*Barrett Hayton (Sault Ste. Marie, OHL) has some hops…even if it was only popping up on radar for one test, it may give some team the cojones to select him high. This might suggest he has some growth potential on a somewhat down skating forecast.

*Lastly, Noah Dobson (Acadie-Bathurst, QMJHL) has no business being on any top ten combine list after playing an 87 game schedule with his last championship winning game happening on May 27th. Well done champ, you’re not getting out of the top ten on June 22nd.

2018 NHL Draft Combine: Overall Leaderboard

As a Certified Strength and Conditioning Specialist (NSCA), DraftBuzz followers have seen the arc of my curious interpretation of NHL Draft Combine testing results over the last few years. Anecdotes during this time point to VERY strong, however selective, correlations between both draft risers and post draft climbers.

The combine is always an interestingly highly contentious part of the process – from fans to NHL personnel, you have those who are combine geeks, those who just care about interviews, and those who don’t care about it at all preferring to let the on-ice play speak for itself. However, you can’t argue the fact that the league has invested in it and employed smart professionals to push the envelope. Now more than ever, the NHL has taken the right steps to make the data/info gleaned more valuable, and it’s learnings should be gaining more value in the community.

With this in mind, here is an Overall Leaderboard to kick off providing some insight on the combine, the results, and what it all means (to come). The Overall Leaderboard is broken down by top ten placements. #1 in each category was assigned 10PTS, #2 assigned 9PTS, ETC. All players in ties were awarded the top amount in points. The value ensuing the tie took the amount of the overall position. ‘Count’ is how many categories each player registered a top ten finish.

RK PLAYER COUNT SCORE
1 Gabriel Fortier 10 68
2 Liam Foudy 7 60
3 Martin Fehervary 8 57
4 Jack Gorniak 8 48
5 Carter Robertson 6 40
6 K’Andre Miller 5 38
7 Xavier Bouchard 4 37
8 Curtis Douglas 4 36
9 Tyler Madden 4 31
10 Kevin Bahl 4 29
11 Nils Lundkvist 4 28
12 Kristian Reichel 3 27
13 Andrei Svechnikov 6 25
14 Cameron Hillis 3 23
15 Jay O’Brien 5 22
T16 Eric Florchuk 4 21
T16 Jakub Lauko 5 21
T16 Ty Emberson 4 21
19 Mattias Samuelsson 4 20
20 Jordan Harris 3 19
21 Adam Boqvist 2 18
22 Benoit-Olivier Groulx 2 16
T23 Jacob Ingham 4 15
T23 Alexander Khovanov 2 15
T23 Oskar Back 2 15
T26 Jack McBain 3 14
T26 Ryan McLeod 2 14
T28 Barrett Hayton 3 13
T28 Curtis Hall 2 13
T28 Jacob Bernard-Docker 2 13
31 Luke Henman 2 12
T32 Adam Ginning 3 11
T32 Matej Pekar 2 11
T32 Jacob Pivonka 2 11
T32 Evan Bouchard 2 11
T36 Ty Dellandrea 2 10
T36 Rasmus Kupari 1 10
T36 Joseph Veleno 1 10
T39 Stanislav Demin 1 9
T39 Oliver Rodrigue 3 9
T39 Aidan Dudas 1 9
T39 Joel Farabee 1 9
T39 Xavier Bernard 3 9
T44 Isac Lundestrom 3 8
T44 Jack Drury 2 8
T44 Oliver Wahlstrom 2 8
T44 Mitchell Hoelscher 2 8
T48 Brady Tkachuk 2 7
T48 Jonathan Gruden 2 7
T48 Ty Smith 1 7
T48 Nico Gross 1 7
T48 Seth Barton 1 7
T48 Blake McLaughlin 1 7
T54 Grigori Denisenko 1 6
T54 Riley Stotts 2 6
T54 Dominik Bokk 1 6
T54 Kevin Mandolese 1 6
T54 Patrick Giles 2 6
T54 Riley Sutter 1 6
T60 Noah Dobson 3 5
T60 Rasmus Dahlin 1 5
T62 Philipp Kurashev 1 4
T62 Michael Callahan 1 4
T62 Jakub Skarek 1 4
T65 Jonathan Tychonick 1 3
T65 Sampo Ranta 2 3
T65 Jett Woo 1 3
T68 Jared McIsaac 1 2
T68 Kody Clark 1 2
T68 Keegan Karki 1 2
T71 Milos Roman 1 1
T71 Tyler Weiss 1 1

 

 

 

 

2018 NHL Draft: Prospect Volatility Index

The Prospect Volatility Index, shortened to PVI, was created in 2015 in an attempt to quantify a prospect’s growth potential, and more specifically, probability of personal change and development at the time of their NHL Draft. The index is a composite ranking designed to combat relative age effect as well as balance dynamic physical development amongst prospects.

This index attempts only to give some objective framework for viewing a prospect’s long-term upside – it doesn’t replace a ranking nor guarantee certain development curve. It was constructed by using the 2018 NHL Draft Combine attendees, NHL CS top 62 skaters for NA, and NHL CS top 31 skaters for EUR. An age and size “position” were calculated for each prospect and combined to establish a composite PVI score.

Essentially, the learnings from this exercise come from the extreme ends of the spectrum. It can split out the younger, more physically underdeveloped players from the older, more physically mature ones. This index is meant to be combined with many other metrics to create a wholistic picture on a given prospect. Very generally, it’s a supremely positive indicator if a ‘subjectively’ elite prospect shows up with a top rank in PVI. Conversely, if a prospect is not billed as a top pick and he shows up with a low PVI rank, odds are said prospect has probably seen his development curve spike already and is much closer to being a finished product. It can be very good for projected top 5-10 picks, as it may mean they are more NHL ready than their peers.

Take a look at historical top PVI prospects***:

2015: #2 Troy Terry @1.90; #3 Anthony Cirelli @1.89; #15 Mitchell Marner @1.67; #16 Sebastian Aho @1.66; #27 Brendan Guhle @1.50; #30 Mathew Barzal @1.44

2016: #6 Jordan Kyrou @1.82; #9 Clayton Keller @1.74; #22 Samuel Girard @1.55; #29 Jesper Bratt @1.51

2017: #1 Alex Formenton @1.94; #27 Filip Chytil @1.55

Here’s the 2018 NHL Draft Top Ten in DraftBuzz PVI:

PVI RK PLAYER NHL CS RK LEAGUE POS PVI
1 Olivier Rodrigue NA1G QMJHL G 1.98
2 Kevin Mandolese NA2G QMJHL G 1.94
3 Jan Jenik EUR16 CZE2 RW 1.91
4 Jackson Perbix NA96 USHS RW 1.77
5 Adam Boqvist EUR2 SUPERELIT D 1.76
6 Lukas Dostal EUR1G CZE2 G 1.75
7 Ruslan Ishakov EUR31 MHL C 1.73
8 Ryan Merkley NA45 OHL D 1.72
9 Luke Henman NA83 QMJHL C 1.71
T10 Jesperi Kotkaniemi EUR6 LIIGA C 1.70
T10 Filip Hallander EUR13 ALLSVENSKAN C 1.70

Here’s the 2018 NHL Draft Bottom Ten in DraftBuzz PVI:

PVI RK PLAYER NHL CS RK LEAGUE POS PVI
111 Riley Sutter NA80 WHL RW 0.44
112 Kyle Topping NA59 WHL C 0.42
113 Jachym Kondelik NA48 USHL C 0.41
114 Krystof Hrabik EUR29 CZE2 C 0.33
115 Filip Zadina NA3 QMJHL RW 0.33
116 Jack Gorniak NA87 USHS LW 0.32
117 Philipp Kurashev NA61 QMJHL C 0.28
118 Sean Durzi  NA37 OHL D 0.27
119 Milos Roman NA41 WHL C 0.25
120 Ryan McLeod NA16 OHL C 0.18

Download the full DraftBuzz 2018 NHL Draft Prospect Volatility Index

 

*combine data pulled from here –> @markscheig

**non-combine attendees data as well as did not test attendees pulled from here

***please note, historical ranks and scores from 2015-2017 were against the final DraftBuzz NHL Draft Rankings

Announcement

Dear DraftBuzz readers,

With diminished published content this year, I unfortunately have to give you all confirmation of the bad news things have been trending towards: sadly, I will not be able to produce a 2018 NHL Draft Guide this June.

After 4 years of working extremely hard individually to give a detailed and comprehensive look at the game’s brightest talent pre-draft, I do not have the ability to create something similar this year despite scouting the class and future draft years. There are a lot of great prospect outlets out there right now, and I am not afraid to say that for a fee my stuff would not be competitive at the moment due to lack of time.

I do plan on releasing some free content leading up to the draft; I will want to keep a timestamped ranking going as well as I will not be able to resist the urge to compile the same proprietary metrics that I have spent so much time investing in over the last few years.

In spirit of the draft, consider this a rebuilding year! Scouting is in my blood and I do not plan to let DraftBuzz go…I want to thank all of my followers who have supported me over the years and hope to build DB up again in the coming months/years!

Thank you all,

Anthony

 

2018 NHL Draft Ranking – February

  1. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frölunda HC (SHL)
  2. Filip Zadina, C, Halifax (QMJHL)
  3. Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL)
  4. Quinton Hughes, D, Michigan (NCAA)
  5. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University (NCAA)
  6. Adam Boqvist, D, Brynäs IF (SUPERELIT)
  7. Oliver Wahlstrom, C, NTDP U18 (USDP)
  8. Rasmus Kupari, C, Oulun Kärpät (LIIGA)
  9. Grigori Denisenko, C, Loko (MHL)
  10. Noah Dobson, D, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)
  11. Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
  12. Ty Smith, D, Spokane (WHL)
  13. Joel Farabee, LW, NTDP U18 (USDP)
  14. Evan Bouchard, D, London (OHL)
  15. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Ässät (LIIGA)
  16. Bode Wilde, D, NTDP U18 (USDP)
  17. Isac Lundeström, C, Luleå HF (SHL)
  18. Joe Veleno, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)
  19. Serron Noel, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
  20. Ryan Merkley, D, Guelph (OHL)
  21. Jacob Olofsson, C, Timrå IK (ALLSVENSKAN)
  22. K’Andre Miller, D, NTDP U18 (USDP)
  23. Dominik Bokk, RW, Växjö (SHL)
  24. Ryan McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
  25. Jett Woo, D, Moose Jaw (WHL)
  26. Aidan Dudas, C, Owen Sound (OHL)
  27. Vitali Kravtsov, LW, Traktor (KHL)
  28. Akil Thomas, RW, Niagara (OHL)
  29. Calen Addison, D, Lethbridge (WHL)
  30. Ty Dellandrea, C, Flint (OHL)
  31. Alexander Alexeyev, D, Red Deer (WHL)

#14 Grigory Denisenko, C, Russia (12/10/2017)

vs. Canada East (WJAC)

deni.gif

2018 NHL Draft prospect Grigory Denisenko had 1G-2A-3PTS vs. Canada East (WJAC) and earned it through impressive displays shift after shift. On this play, he shows great speed through the neutral zone to spring a teammate in the O zone. Then, he shows tenacity to strip steal and re-enter the zone again. He doesn’t pick the best option, but he sure put in the work to not criticize him too much on this shift.

denisenko.gif

Here you can see him deke the pants off an opponent, register a scoring chance off the post, follow the play intently for a takeaway keeping play alive for extended possession, then caps off the shift by sneaking in behind the defense and showing how dangerous he is given a step. He scores driving to the net.

deniapple.gif

Denisenko provides support along the right wall defensively, breaks out, stays available, and then proceeds to enact a sweet backhand drop pass give and go for the assist through a crowd on the goal.